Possible scenario
Security Crackdown
35% Chance
Prime Minister Edi Rama treats the burning of the Interior Ministry and a police station as an attack on the state and expands the role of the State Police, RENEA and the Guard of the Republic. This is the most likely near-term path because the violence has moved from street clashes to attacks on core government buildings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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