Possible scenario
Political Transition
20% Chance
The protests become a broader anti-government movement and force a transition discussion inside Albania's institutions. Rama still has significant party control, but attacks on state buildings and nationwide mobilization could make an early election or caretaker formula the least destabilizing option.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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