Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
30% Chance
Rama tries to split student protesters from violent groups by offering education concessions, an inquiry into police conduct and limited cabinet changes. This path is plausible because Albania's EU accession process gives Brussels and domestic institutions leverage to push a political off-ramp.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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