• 

  40%

  −0.1%

  Moderated Tax Package

  Hinojosa converts the campaign pledge into a negotiated package rather than a hard stop on data center growth. New projects face a targeted power-use or infrastructure tax and union-oriented labor standards, while existing and already-approved facilities are largely grandfathered.

  Technology −0.2% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  25%

  +0.2%

  Rules Face Resistance

  The legislature, business groups, and some local governments resist the breadth of the new tax and union labor requirements. The policy remains directionally intact, but implementation slows as lawmakers and courts test how much authority Hinojosa has over permits and ERCOT interconnections.

  Utilities +0.5% · Technology +0.4% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  25%

  −0.4%

  Strict Regime Imposed

  Hinojosa interprets the election mandate aggressively and keeps the Abbott-era pause while adding tougher conditions for new data centers. Higher labor costs, tax exposure, and interconnection uncertainty push some projects out of Texas.

  Utilities −1.0% · Technology −0.8% · Industrials −0.4%

• 

  10%

  +0.1%

  Grid Investment Compact

  Hinojosa uses the tax and labor announcement as leverage for a broader settlement with ERCOT, utilities, unions, and large data center customers. New permits resume faster than feared in exchange for dedicated transmission funding, local hiring commitments, and clearer power-procurement rules.

  Utilities +1.0% · Industrials +0.5% · Technology +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.