Possible scenario
Growth Scare Deepens
35% Chance
The confidence drop proves to be an early warning that households are pulling back on discretionary spending while employers slow hiring. Markets price a higher probability of a near-term recession and a faster Federal Reserve easing path, partly offsetting equity downside through lower yields.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Fed policy rate Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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