Possible scenario
Confidence Stabilizes
20% Chance
The September confidence drop marks a local trough rather than the start of a sharper downturn. Lower gasoline prices, steady payrolls, or stronger wage growth help households regain some confidence, supporting a modest risk-on response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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