Possible scenario
Police Row Fades
25% Chance
The police referral by Labour MPs produces limited procedural follow-up and no major legal consequences for Polanski or the Green Party. Labour continues to use the episode politically, but the immediate controversy loses momentum after the by-election result.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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