Possible scenario
On-Time Phased Rollout
43% Chance
The State Department delivers the first-time online passport application service broadly on schedule, building on the online renewal system that became widely available in 2024. A controlled rollout lets the Bureau of Consular Affairs expand eligibility while preserving fraud checks and routine processing standards.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.