Possible scenario
Launch Slips Modestly
25% Chance
Technical, procurement, or identity-verification issues push the public launch beyond the announced next-year target. Given the history of passport processing delays and the complexity of first-time identity checks, a moderate delay is plausible without implying a broader policy failure.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.