Possible scenario
Texas Deal Advances
40% Chance
TSMC moves closer to a Texas investment after receiving enough certainty that a new US fab would qualify for the 25% advanced-manufacturing investment tax credit. This is the most likely path because the company has already expanded in Arizona and is explicitly linking Texas to tax-credit economics.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- TSM+2.0%
- INTC+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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