Possible scenario
PA Rule Fragments
18% Chance
An Israeli move against PA security organs accelerates fragmentation of Palestinian governance in the West Bank. Israel assumes greater direct security responsibility in parts of Area A while local militias, Fatah factions and Hamas-linked cells compete for influence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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