Possible scenario
Limited West Bank Operation
30% Chance
Israel conducts limited operations against PA-linked armed units or security compounds in northern West Bank cities, framing the move as counterterrorism rather than war on the PA as a whole. The operation strains PA authority but does not immediately topple Ramallah’s leadership.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.