Possible scenario
Coercive Planning Only
38% Chance
Israel uses the IDF war-plan order as a coercive signal to the Palestinian Authority rather than an immediate operational trigger. U.S., Jordanian and Egyptian pressure, plus Israeli concern over a security vacuum in the West Bank, keeps formal PA security coordination partially intact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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