Possible scenario
Sanctions bite harder
30% Chance
Western enforcement against the shadow fleet, insurers, traders and vessel managers intensifies after recent European actions. Russian crude exports fall below the one-month low as compliance risk deters Indian refiners and constrains ship availability.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
- FRO+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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