Possible scenario
Compliance workaround emerges
18% Chance
A limited compliance channel develops through price-cap attestations, cleaner documentation and tighter screening of vessels. That allows part of the disrupted flow to return without a full rollback of sanctions policy.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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