China absorbs barrels

Russian exports stabilize near the current 3.6 million bpd level as Chinese state and independent refiners take more discounted Urals and ESPO crude. India remains cautious because of U.S. sanctions risk, but Beijing's willingness to buy prevents a deeper near-term volume collapse.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.