Possible scenario
Yes Vote Wins
20% Chance
The independence campaign converts the PQ election mandate into a referendum victory, most plausibly on a narrow margin. The Clarity Act prevents automatic secession, but Ottawa would face intense pressure to negotiate, creating the largest constitutional crisis since 1995.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -3.0%
- Telecommunications -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.