Possible scenario
Referendum Is Delayed
25% Chance
The PQ government struggles to convert its election win into a viable referendum timetable. Federal Clarity Act constraints, litigation, budget pressures, and voter fatigue push the independence vote beyond the promised horizon or dilute the pledge.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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