Possible scenario
No Vote Prevails
45% Chance
The Parti Québécois holds a referendum before 2030, but the No side wins, reflecting the 2025 polling preference for Canadian unity and concerns over currency, pensions, trade, and Indigenous rights. Ottawa invokes the Clarity Act framework while business groups and federalist parties press the economic-risk argument.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Telecommunications +0.7%
- Utilities +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.