Possible scenario
Rules Fight Escalates
18% Chance
Facing Democratic obstruction and a narrow calendar, Republicans consider aggressive procedural tactics to speed confirmations. This heightens partisan conflict over Senate norms, especially if blue-slip traditions or debate limits become part of the fight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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