Possible scenario
Rhetoric Without Breakout
38% Chance
Iranian hardliners keep demanding a nuclear weapon, but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council avoid a formal decision to build one. Tehran uses the debate to deter further U.S. and Israeli strikes while preserving some diplomatic ambiguity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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