Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalation
22% Chance
Iran answers nuclear-site attacks and domestic calls for a bomb by raising costs in the Gulf rather than immediately testing a device. The Strait of Hormuz remains the central escalation point because it offers Tehran leverage over oil markets and U.S. naval operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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