Possible scenario
Covert Breakout Attempt
27% Chance
Iran concludes that deterrence now requires a weaponization option and moves parts of its surviving nuclear network underground or into military custody. The most likely path is covert acceleration rather than a public test or immediate declaration.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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