Possible scenario
Limited Joint Strike
40% Chance
The most likely kinetic outcome is a limited U.S.-Israeli campaign focused on Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan, and related air-defense nodes after the Nov. 3 midterms. Washington and Jerusalem try to degrade Iran's nuclear capability without triggering a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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