Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
25% Chance
The U.S. and Israel keep strike plans active but use the threat to force a last-minute diplomatic channel through Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries. Tehran may offer limited inspections or uranium-transfer steps to delay military action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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