Possible scenario
Political Containment
25% Chance
Labour and Conservative leaderships try to de-escalate the dispute by agreeing that hostile Russian activity occurred while avoiding claims that Brexit itself was illegitimate. This outcome is plausible because both main parties have reasons to avoid reopening the referendum divide in a destabilising way.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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