Possible scenario
Inquiry Contains Row
40% Chance
Parliament channels the dispute into hearings by the Intelligence and Security Committee or Home Affairs Committee. This is the most likely path because MI5 has already cautioned Andy Burnham, while ministers and Conservatives have incentives to avoid an uncontrolled fight over classified material.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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