Possible scenario
Contained Drone Pressure
45% Chance
Russia continues using Geran-5 drones against Kyiv, but the attack remains within the pattern of ongoing strikes rather than marking a major escalation. Ukraine prioritizes air-defense coverage for research, government, and energy sites while awaiting newly agreed Patriot support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- RTX+0.9%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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