Possible scenario
Regional Mediation
15% Chance
China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates could push both sides toward a temporary security arrangement, given Beijing's interest in Pakistan stability and regional infrastructure security. This would not resolve the TTP sanctuary issue, but it could reduce near-term fighting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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