Possible scenario
Pakistani Escalation
30% Chance
Islamabad may conclude that Taliban authorities are unable or unwilling to stop militants crossing from Afghanistan, leading to heavier air and artillery strikes. This would deepen the interstate confrontation but still likely remain geographically concentrated in eastern and southern Afghanistan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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