Contained Border Fighting

The most likely path is a continuation of tit-for-tat fire along the Durand Line without either side committing to a full conventional ground campaign. Both Islamabad and the Taliban have incentives to demonstrate resolve while avoiding a broader war that would strain Pakistan's economy and Afghanistan's limited state capacity.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.