Possible scenario
Truce Extension
45% Chance
Trump and Xi use the Sept. 24 meeting to prevent a near-term escalation and extend the tariff truce before the Nov. 10 expiry. This is the most likely outcome because both sides have incentives to avoid a market-disruptive tariff fight while preserving leverage for later talks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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