Possible scenario
Targeted Trade Package
25% Chance
The meeting produces more than a simple extension, with targeted concessions on tariffs, agricultural purchases, and critical minerals. This is less likely than a truce extension because it requires both sides to offer concrete concessions before the Nov. 10 deadline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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