Possible scenario
Managed Drift
20% Chance
The leaders avoid a breakdown but do not announce a formal extension or tariff package. Markets face continued uncertainty into October, though the absence of immediate escalation limits the negative reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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