Possible scenario
Managed Overseas Rollout
38% Chance
The administration turns the plan into a Treasury- and State Department-led campaign encouraging foreign exchanges, banks and payment firms to use GENIUS Act-compliant dollar stablecoins. This is the most likely path because it fits the Trump administration's digital-asset policy and offers a politically useful way to broaden demand for Treasury bills without a formal capital-control regime.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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