Possible scenario
Limited Treasury Effect
27% Chance
The initiative expands the role of dollar stablecoins but does not materially change the supply-demand balance in the Treasury market. This is plausible because even large stablecoin reserve portfolios remain small relative to U.S. deficits, refinancing needs and auction sizes.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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