Possible scenario
Foreign Regulatory Pushback
22% Chance
Foreign regulators resist the initiative because it could increase dollarization, weaken local monetary control and redirect deposits toward offshore issuers. This path is credible because the EU, China and several emerging-market central banks have already been cautious about private dollar stablecoins.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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