Possible scenario
Rate Relief Stabilizes
28% Chance
The weak sentiment data reinforces expectations that high rates are restraining housing and may limit further Fed tightening. If long yields fall, mortgage rates could ease enough to stabilize traffic without producing a full recovery.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.