Possible scenario
Downturn Extends
42% Chance
Builder confidence at 29 points to a deeper freeze in new-home demand as 7.63% mortgage rates keep affordability stretched. The most likely path is further cuts to starts, more incentives, and weaker builder guidance into winter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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