Possible scenario
Costs Squeeze Margins
18% Chance
The weak sentiment reading comes after lumber prices surged and tariffs weighed on builders. Even if demand does not collapse further, elevated input costs could keep margins under pressure and delay a rebound in construction.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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