Possible scenario
State-Led Reflation
18% Chance
The loan rebound is real but concentrated in state-owned enterprises, infrastructure and policy-bank-linked projects. This supports metals, machinery and construction activity while doing less to restore household confidence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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