Possible scenario
Credit Stabilization Takes Hold
42% Chance
The stronger-than-expected yuan loan figure marks a real improvement after weak July and August lending. PBOC liquidity support and loan quotas begin to translate into firmer corporate borrowing, easing fears that China is stuck in a deflationary credit contraction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.0%
- Finance +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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