Possible scenario
Contained Northern War
45% Chance
The most likely path is a renewed but geographically contained conflict centered on Tigray, Afar, and contested transport nodes. Federal forces, TPLF units, and regional militias continue fighting, but neither side quickly achieves a decisive breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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