Possible scenario
Managed Compromise
25% Chance
The UK avoids a full copy of EU tariffs and instead negotiates a managed trade arrangement involving quotas, price undertakings, or delayed duties. This would satisfy some EU concerns while reducing the risk of immediate Chinese retaliation or higher UK consumer prices.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- STLA+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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