Possible scenario
Political Backlash Builds
25% Chance
Because the reserve is already below its mandated level and near a 1982 low, Congress and state officials press the administration for a refill plan. The market impact depends on whether the offer proceeds with oversight or becomes delayed by political and legal scrutiny.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- COP+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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