Possible scenario
Relief Proves Partial
30% Chance
The buybacks slow the selloff but fail to reverse it because foreign investors keep reducing duration exposure across Asia. Korean officials avoid panic measures, yet volatility remains elevated around auctions and the 2027 budget outlook.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Technology -0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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