Possible scenario
Tariff Quota Compromise
20% Chance
After the failed summit, negotiators move toward a technical arrangement rather than a headline Trump-Xi bargain. A tariff-rate quota or data-localization framework allows limited imports while avoiding a full trade escalation.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- TSLA-1.5%
- GMM.USD+0.1%
- F+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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