Possible scenario
Orderly Limited Launch
45% Chance
Argentina implements the $800,000 bond requirement as a narrow citizenship-by-investment channel rather than a mass migration program. Uptake is concentrated among wealthy Russian, Chinese, and Latin American applicants, with modest support for hard-currency bond demand but little immediate macro-market spillover.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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