Possible scenario
EU Retaliation Escalates
30% Chance
Several EU governments treat Israel's action as retaliation against lawful trade policy and coordinate a sharper response. This could accelerate EU-wide enforcement against settlement-linked goods and increase scrutiny of Israeli participation in selected European programs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.