Possible scenario
Inflation Remains Sticky
40% Chance
Energy pass-through from the Iran-war oil shock keeps French headline inflation near 3.4% into late 2026. The ECB is likely to treat the reading as evidence that the disinflation path has stalled, even if core price pressures are less severe.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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